Falling Mexican fertility rate may cut immigration

This shows that Mexico's fertility rate is at the replacement rate. This means our country will need immigrants from other countries too. Our workforce is too small and we need immigrants. DP

By David Gaddis Smith, UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER

signonsandiego.com: SAN DIEGO – The United States is going to need an infusion of immigrants in the coming decades to keep its economy humming and Mexico will probably be providing fewer of those workers because of its falling fertility rate, a demographer told UCSD's Center for Comparative Immigration Studies last week.

In 1970, Mexican mothers had an average of 6.8 children. Today, the fertility rate has fallen to 2.4, said Dowell Myers, professor of urban planning and demography at the University of Southern California.

“What's that mean for future migration? Is Mexico going to share so many of its workers with us?” Myers asked.

He told scholars at the University of California San Diego that Mexico was likely to retain a great percentage of its workers for its own economy.

Myers said that could put the United States in competition with other nations in need of immigrant workers.

A fertility rate of 2.0 keeps a population at a more or less constant level.

Myers said countries that are not producing enough babies to support their older residents in the long term include Japan, with a fertility rate of 1.2; Korea, 1.2; Italy, 1.3; and Germany, 1.3.
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